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Auto genitalia makers in the Chicago breadth are animating for the latest in a alternation of anatomy ault aback Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. carve new car embly aboriginal aing year.

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Already attenuated by ascent raw actual costs and amount cuts accepted by automakers, genitalia makers are in poor appearance to bear a bead in orders. Abounding will face losses, layoffs and burden to advertise out.

Auto genitalia accomplishment was a cornerstone of the bounded abridgement for a generation, but has been in abatement for a decade or more. Long a antecedent of befalling for entrepreneurs and high-paying jobs for accomplished workers, the industry is shrinking and acid payroll. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago estimates statewide application in the genitalia business is bottomward 19% to 50,000 aback 1998. The cardinal of genitalia companies in Illinois alone 40% to 200 over the aforementioned period, according to Plante & Moran, an industry consultancy in Michigan.

Industrywide aculation margins fell to 1% aftermost year from 4% in 2003, Plante & Moran says. For abounding bounded suppliers, the embly cuts will advance adjustment aggregate too low to advance alike that bare margin. Added bankruptcies and consolidations ume ertive in an industry with accommodation to aculation about 25% added cartage than automakers are ucing.

"This is an industry that's not sustainable. Something has to give," says David Cole, administrator of the Center for Automotive Research, an Ann Arbor, Mich.-based ane tank.

FEWER CASES, FEWER ORDERS

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Ford and GM anniversary plan to trim car embly by 7% to 8% in the aboriginal ision of 2005. Beneath cars will beggarly beneath orders for Chicago-area suppliers like Cherry Corp. in Waukegan.

"There's no agnosticism it will ripple through to us," says Peter Cherry, admiral of the maker of cyberbanking switches for automobiles. "If they accomplish 8% beneath cars, they'll charge 8% beneath components."

Mr. Cherry hasn't noticed orders tailing off aloof yet, but he says adjustment breeze during the antecedent stages of a arrest is generally lumpy. Auto genitalia accounted for about 55% of the company's $400 actor in sales aftermost year. Cherry has no affairs to trim its 3,500-employee workforce, but Mr. Cherry warns, "You can never say never."

Softening orders in the fourth ision affected Mundelein-based MacLean Agent Systems to append overtime and stop hiring. MacLean, which makes forgings, accouterments and artificial moldings, counts on Ford and GM for added than 40% of its $300 actor in anniversary revenue. Admiral Timothy Taylor pes to abstain laying off any of his 2,000 workers, but he expects to extend the acceptable one-week anniversary abeyance by a anniversary at some of MacLean's 11 U.S. plants this year.

"We've had a abundant accent on action account cartage and auto trucks, and tse are the ones that are activity to booty the burden of the cutbacks in the aboriginal quarter," says Mr. Taylor.

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A cogent bead in orders from Ford and GM could attempt Lake Forest ler and sck hion maker Tenneco Automotive Inc. aback into the red afterwards two years of bashful profits. Tse articles accounted for added than one-third of Tenneco's $3.7 billion in sales aftermost year.

"If sales go bottomward because (the automakers) cut embly or the animate prices aculate activity up, their net ets band could attending ugly," says yst Sy Lombard of acclaim ay close Gimme Acclaim in New York. Tenneco admiral beneath to be interviewed.

Some genitalia suppliers achievement American factories opened by adopted car makers in contempo years will accomplish up for some of the orders absent from GM and Ford.

"We appee to advance relationships with companies that are agriculture the German and Japanese transplants," says John Winzeler, admiral of Winzeler Gear in Harwood Heights, which makes artificial gears. "They action new opportunities."

Even the growing achievement from foreign-owned plants won't lift all-embracing North American agent embly in 2005 abundant above 2004's 15.9 actor vehicles, according to IRN Inc., a Grand Rapids, Mich., auto industry ay firm. That's able-bodied off the almanac 17.1 actor uced in 2000.

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PRICE PRESSURE

U.S. automakers are blame genitalia suppliers to consolidate and cut prices. For the accomplished several years, they've imposed amount cuts of up to 5% a year on genitalia makers. Low prices on the abstracts acclimated by genitalia makers buffered tse cuts for a while. But in the aftermost year-and-a-half, prices are up as abundant as 120% for animate and 40% for artificial resins. The consistent aculation clasp leaves genitalia makers little allowance to blot the embly cuts.

Excess accommodation is the basis of the industry's woes. North American factories can aculation genitalia for 20 actor cartage a year, about 4 actor added than automakers are selling.

Down 40% aback 1998 to 3,000, the cardinal of genitalia makers civic is accepted to bead to 1,500 by 2010, Plante & Moran forecasts. There's no aen to apprehend bounded genitalia companies to escape that trend.

As their ranks dwindle, ripple furnishings will ambit over the Chicago-area economy. Gregory Baise, admiral of the Illinois Accomplishment Assn., estimates every job in genitalia accomplishment supports three added jobs in businesses such as apparatus applique and automated supply.

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"You accept a mural dotted with abate companies area a ample allotment of their articles are activity to the automotive industry," Mr. Baise says. "Once they're gone, they'll never return."

©2004 by Crain Communications Inc.



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